Viendo archivo del domingo, 5 enero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Jan 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 5 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jan 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/2252Z from Region 1936 (S15W90). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07
Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 505 km/s at
05/0329Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2256Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 694 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (07 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08
Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jan a 08 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Jan 218 Previsto 06 Jan-08 Jan 220/220/215 Media de 90 Días 05 Jan 148
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jan 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 006/005-011/015-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jan a 08 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 40% | 35% |
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