Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 noviembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Nov 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 325 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z100 to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/1111Z from Region 1893 (S13, L=100). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at
20/2103Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24
Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Nov a 24 Nov
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Nov 141 Previsto 22 Nov-24 Nov 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 21 Nov 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Nov 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Nov 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Nov a 24 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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