Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 noviembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Nov 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
14/0800Z from Region 1897 (S21E26). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (15 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 405 km/s at
14/1512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 475 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (16 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Nov).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (15 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Nov 176 Previsto 15 Nov-17 Nov 175/175/175 Media de 90 Días 14 Nov 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 005/005-007/008-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 25% | 45% |
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