Viendo archivo del miércoles, 9 octubre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Oct 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 282 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Oct 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
09/0148Z from Region 1865 (S21E58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct,
12 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 683 km/s at 09/0311Z. Total IMF reached 36 nT at 08/2112Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 08/2305Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Oct 113 Previsto 10 Oct-12 Oct 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 09 Oct 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Oct 012/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 017/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 012/012-008/010-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 05% | 10% |
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