Viendo archivo del sábado, 24 agosto 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Aug 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 236 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Aug 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (27 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 532 km/s at
24/0729Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/0116Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3575 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Aug a 27 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Aug 117 Previsto 25 Aug-27 Aug 115/110/105 Media de 90 Días 24 Aug 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Aug 014/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Aug 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 019/020-011/012-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Aug a 27 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 30% | 20% |
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