Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 julio 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jul 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 187 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jul 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/0233Z from Region 1785 (S11E12). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
384 km/s at 06/1141Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/0059Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 06/0253Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 480 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jul 134 Previsto 07 Jul-09 Jul 140/140/145 Media de 90 Días 06 Jul 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 010/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 016/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 013/025-009/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 30% | 30% |
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