Viendo archivo del jueves, 16 mayo 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 May 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
16/1924Z from Region 1748 (N12E36). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high with
a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May,
19 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 15/2326Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2115Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0139Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32 pfu at
16/0410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (18 May, 19 May). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (17 May), are expected to cross
threshold on day two (18 May) and are expected to cross threshold on day
three (19 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 99% | 95% | 90% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 May 145 Previsto 17 May-19 May 145/145/140 Media de 90 Días 16 May 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 May 010/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 May 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 011/015-008/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 25% | 25% |
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