Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 mayo 2013

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 May 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2013

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 15/0148Z from Region 1748 (N11E51). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 457 km/s at 15/1605Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/1124Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 15/1850Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 May, 18 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X60%60%60%
Protón99%90%90%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 May 146
  Previsto   16 May-18 May 145/145/145
  Media de 90 Días        15 May 120

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 May  007/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 May  007/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  006/008-011/015-008/008

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%30%15%
Tormenta Menor05%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%40%25%

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