Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 mayo 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 May 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 133 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 May 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
13/1605Z from Region 1748(N12E86). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15
May, 16 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
395 km/s at 13/0623Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/1650Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0514Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 501 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (15 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 May).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 May a 16 May
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 May 150 Previsto 14 May-16 May 150/150/145 Media de 90 Días 13 May 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 May 006/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 May 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 003/005-010/015-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 May a 16 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 30% | 25% |
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