Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 abril 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Apr 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Apr 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/2325Z from Region 1726 (N13W49). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
483 km/s at 24/1927Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 24/0955Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 24/0927Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (27
Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Apr a 27 Apr
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Apr 115 Previsto 25 Apr-27 Apr 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 24 Apr 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Apr 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Apr 012/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 016/018-011/012-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Apr a 27 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 25% | 10% |
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