Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 noviembre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 335 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Nov 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1625 (N14E36, Dao/beta-gamma) remained the most flare-productive region with frequent low-level C-class subflares. It showed some intermediate spot decay during the period, but retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1620 (S13W81, Eai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period: a C5 at 30/1748 UTC as it approached the west limb. No significant changes were noted in the region, but analysis was hampered due to limb proximity. No significant changes were noted in Region 1623 (N08E35, Dao/beta-gamma). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be low through 03 December with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. At present, Regions 1620 and 1625 appear to be the most capable of producing isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels with no sign of the CME passage that was expected to begin around 30/0000 UTC. Solar winds were low in the approximate 326 to 363 km/s range. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 01 December with a slight chance for active levels due to CH HSS effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during 02 - 03 December as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Dec a 03 Dec
Clase M20%15%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Nov 111
  Previsto   01 Dec-03 Dec 105/100/100
  Media de 90 Días        30 Nov 122

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Nov  002/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Nov  003/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  007/008-004/005-005/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Dec a 03 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%05%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%10%05%

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