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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 332 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Nov 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1/Sf event observed at 27/1557Z from Region 1618 (N09W81). The region appears to be decaying but it is difficult to determine size and magnetic configuration with its proximity to the west limb. Region 1620 (S12W43) continued to show growth in its intermediate spots and developed magnetically into a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Two CMEs were observed this morning. The first became visible as an EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning around 27/0245Z near N28E46 and appears to have been associated with a disappearing filament. The second CME appears in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 27/0530Z near N00W27. Further analysis is being conducted on these two events to determine geoeffectiveness.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, continued to decrease from approximately 500 km/s to 415 km/s as the effects from the 23 November CME subside. Total IMF reached 5.7 nT at 26/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2.8 nT at 27/1722Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (28 Nov). Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on day two (29 Nov) due to the anticipated arrival of the 26 November CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (30 Nov) at this time due to coronal hole high speed stream effects, however, the results of the analysis on the events discussed above may change the latter half of this forecast slightly.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Nov a 30 Nov
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Nov 117
  Previsto   28 Nov-30 Nov 115/110/105
  Media de 90 Días        27 Nov 123

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Nov  006/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  004/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  006/005-012/015-007/010

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Nov a 30 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor15%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%40%30%

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