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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 331 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Nov 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/1526Z from Region 1620 (S13W28). The region grew significantly overnight and is now considered an Esi-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1618 (N08W69) continued to decay, however, it maintained a weak delta in its trailing spot. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. A filament eruption was observed south of Region 1620 in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 26/0343Z. A model run is in progress to determine geoeffectiveness.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. A shock passage was observed at 26/0437Z indicating the possible early arrival of the 23 November CME followed by an 8 nT Sudden Impulse (SI) observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 26/0514Z. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 558 km/s at 26/0709Z. Total IMF reached 12.8 nT at 26/0749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.8 nT at 26/0729Z although it has remained positive since about 26/1000Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods on day one (27 Nov) as CME effects begin to wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Nov a 29 Nov
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Nov 122
  Previsto   27 Nov-29 Nov 120/120/115
  Media de 90 Días        26 Nov 123

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Nov  004/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  011/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Nov a 29 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%10%05%
Tormenta Menor10%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%15%05%

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