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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 24 2300 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 329 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Nov 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3/1n event observed at 24/1340Z from Region 1618 (N08W41) accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (685 km/s). No coronagraph imagery was available for analysis at the time of this report. Region 1618 showed signs of decay during the period, but retained weak beta-gamma-delta characteristics. New Region 1621 (N15E76) was numbered today and is currently a simple Hsx type with alpha magnetic characteristics. The remaining 3 regions were stable. Other than the potential CME associated with the Type II sweep noted above, no earth-directed CMEs were detected.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov) with a diminishing chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 1618 as it continues to decay.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The maximum solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was 439 km/s at 24/1137Z. Total IMF reached 17.1 nT at 23/2216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10.3 nT at 24/0621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 789 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next three days (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov). The 21 November CME is expected to become geoeffective late on 24 or early on 25 November. Unsettled to active periods with an isolated minor storm period are expected on day 1 (25 November). Conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (26 November). The 23 November CME is expected to arrive on day 3 (27 November), bringing unsettled to active conditions with a slight chance for an isolated minor storm period, particularly at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Nov a 27 Nov
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Nov 118
  Previsto   25 Nov-27 Nov 120/115/110
  Media de 90 Días        24 Nov 123

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Nov  006/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  013/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/018-008/005-013/015

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Nov a 27 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%10%25%
Tormenta Menor15%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor30%15%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa50%15%35%

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