Viendo archivo del martes, 13 noviembre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Nov 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1613 (S23E31) has developed a Delta magnetic configuration and produced multiple M-class flares with associated CMEs. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 13/0204Z from Region 1613. Regions 1610 (S24W23) and 1611 (N12W00) have Beta Gamma magnetic configurations. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No CMEs observed during the period are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 504 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 22.8 nT at 13/0053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19.5 nT at 12/2338Z. ACE data indicated a shock arrival at 12/2216Z. A sudden impulse was observed at 12/2316Z (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin at active levels early on day 1 (14 Nov) as CME effects subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days 1 and 2 (14, 15 Nov) due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (16 Nov), conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels. Protons have a slight chance of reaching alert threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Nov a 16 Nov
Clase M65%65%65%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 Nov 146
  Previsto   14 Nov-16 Nov 150/150/160
  Media de 90 Días        13 Nov 118

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 Nov  004/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  014/016
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Nov a 16 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%05%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%15%
Tormenta Menor30%30%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%25%05%

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