Viendo archivo del lunes, 12 noviembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Nov 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/1022Z from Region 1610 (S22W10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
12/0605Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0724Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.1 nT at 12/1934Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly active with a chance for minor storm levels early on day
one (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z.
Activity is expected to decrease to generally unsettled levels on day 2
(14 Nov) as CME effects subside. On day 3 (15 Nov) conditions are
expected to return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Nov 144 Previsto 13 Nov-15 Nov 145/145/150 Media de 90 Días 12 Nov 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 013/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 25% | 05% |
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