Viendo archivo del miércoles, 31 octubre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 305 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Oct 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1596 (N06, L=152) and
1598 (S11W65) both produced C1 flares at 31/0507Z and 31/1139Z
respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed during the reporting period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A sudden
impulse of 13 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at
31/1539Z due to the arrival of a CME. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
levels on day one (01 November) due to continued CME effects. Quiet
to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions are
expected on days 2 and 3 (02 - 03 November) as effects subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Oct 104 Previsto 01 Nov-03 Nov 105/100/095 Media de 90 Días 31 Oct 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Oct 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 003/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 014/020-007/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 25% | 20% |
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