Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 octubre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 298 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Oct 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E29) has produced numerous C-class events throughout the period, and remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Although slight decay was noted in Region 1598s trailer spots, it still maintains a Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1596 (N08W08) is moderately sized with some magnetic complexity, but did not produce any flares during the period. The other regions either remained stable or were decaying.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with occasional M-class events, and a slight chance for an isolated X-class event for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct) with Region 1598 the most likely source.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, decreased slowly throughout the period from around 370 km/s to around 340 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/- 2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Oct a 27 Oct
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Oct 136
  Previsto   25 Oct-27 Oct  135/135/130
  Media de 90 Días        24 Oct 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Oct  009/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Oct a 27 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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