Viendo archivo del sábado, 20 octubre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Oct 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was high. An impulsive M9 flare
occurred at 20/1814Z from newly numbered Region 1598 (S15E82). This
region appeared to be responsible for several C-class flares as it
approached the visible disk and will continue to be the area of
interest for the next few days. An associated Type II radio sweep
was recorded with an estimated speed of 516 km/s. Region 1593
(N15E09) showed some shearing and spot loss over the past 24 hours,
while Region 1597 (S22W58) had some intermediate spot growth and
separation between leader and follower. The remaining regions
showed little to or no changes. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed for the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (21-23 October) with a chance for isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 440 km/s to near 380 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continued to show minor deflections of
+/- 2 nT while total fields hovered near 4 nT. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (21 October). An increase to quiet to
unsettled levels is expected for days 2 and 3 (22-23 October) due to
the effects of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Oct 151 Previsto 21 Oct-23 Oct 150/150/145 Media de 90 Días 20 Oct 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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