Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 octubre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Oct 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar Activity was low. Multiple low-level C-class flares occurred, including a C3 flare at 19/2052Z from an un-numbered region beyond the southeast limb. Region 1596 (N08E60), an Eko/Beta-Gamma spot group, showed intermediate spot growth and was the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk. Several CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery, however, none are believed to be Earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during the forecast period (20-23 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from approximately 600 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive with maximum deflections near +/-2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (20 October). Days 2 and 3 (21-22 October) should see an increase to quiet to unsettled levels due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Oct a 22 Oct
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Oct 141
  Previsto   20 Oct-22 Oct  140/140/135
  Media de 90 Días        19 Oct 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Oct  004/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Oct a 22 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%10%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%

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