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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 287 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Oct 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1589 (N13E22) is the most magnetically complex spot group on the visible disk with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares during the forecast period (14-16 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with major to severe storm periods observed at high latitudes. The period began with quiet to unsettled conditions through 13/0300Z. A sustained period of southward Bz to -11 nT for approximately 13 hours resulted in active to minor storm conditions with major to severe storm periods at high latitudes. At about 13/0650Z, the phi angle changed from a negative (toward) orientation to a positive (away) orientation, indicating a solar sector boundary crossing. This was followed by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By 13/1618Z, solar wind speed increased from approximately 530 km/s to 590 km/s while the total magnetic field (Bt) decreased to 5 nT as the CH HSS became geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on day 1 (14 October). Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (15 October) due to persistence. By day 3 (16 October), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as coronal hole effects wane. On days 2-3, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region 1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Oct a 16 Oct
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 Oct 125
  Previsto   14 Oct-16 Oct  125/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        13 Oct 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 Oct  012/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  025/036
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  016/018-011/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Oct a 16 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor25%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa55%40%20%

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