Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 octubre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 286 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Oct 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N13E35) was responsible for several low level C-flares and a C9/1f flare at 12/0820Z. Region 1589 continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma magnetic classification. New region 1591 (N07E71) rotated onto the disk as a bipolar D-type group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-flare during the forecast period (13-15 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between approximately 450 and 550 km/s. Prolonged periods of southward Bz (near -5 nT) coupled with enhanced wind speed resulted in an isolated active period between 12/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days 2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region 1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Oct a 15 Oct
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón01%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 Oct 122
  Previsto   13 Oct-15 Oct  125/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        12 Oct 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  012/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  007/008-010/012-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Oct a 15 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%30%30%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor20%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%40%40%

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