Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 octubre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 284 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Oct 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A pair of M1 x-ray events
were produced at 09/2331Z and 10/0504Z by a new region which has not
yet rotated around the southeast limb. Region 1589 (N13E61) remains
the largest and most complex group on the solar disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for moderate levels over the next three days (11-13
October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at minor storm conditions, due
to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream coupled with
residual and lingering CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions then
followed and continued for the remainder of the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels on day
one (11 October) as coronal hole effects continue. Mostly quiet
conditions are forecast for days two and three (12-13 October).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Oct a 13 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Oct 112 Previsto 11 Oct-13 Oct 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 10 Oct 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 032/050 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Oct 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Oct a 13 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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