Viewing archive of martes, 9 octubre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 283 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Oct 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A few C-class events were observed during the period, most from a region around the southeast limb that has not yet rotated onto the disk. Three new regions were numbered today with Region 1589 (N13E75) as the largest and most active.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class flare over the next three days (10-12 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the day at active levels before the onset of two major storm periods (09/00-06Z). This peak activity was then followed by a minor storm period before mostly quiet conditions prevailed for the remainder of the period. The increased activity was the result of residual effects from the CME on 05 October. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on day one (10 October), due to high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast on day two (11 October) and mostly quiet levels are expected on day three (12 October).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Oct a 12 Oct
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 Oct 106
  Previsto   10 Oct-12 Oct  105/105/100
  Media de 90 Días        09 Oct 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 Oct  021/040
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  024/038
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  012/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Oct a 12 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%15%05%
Tormenta Menor10%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%20%05%

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