Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 265 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The largest x-ray event
was a B8/Sf at 21/1221Z produced by Region 1573 (N18W04). The
largest spot group on the solar disk, Region 1575 (N08E37), remains
near 250 millionths in area with a Beta magnetic configuration. Two
asymmetrical partial halo CMEs were observed in SOHO LASCO during
the period. Both events were determined to be backside sourced, and
are not expected to impact Earth.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (22-24 September).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period, despite the
influence of a weak coronal hole (CH) high speed stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day 1 (22 September) as CH
effects wane. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for days
2-3 (23-24 September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Sep 117 Previsto 22 Sep-24 Sep 118/120/120 Media de 90 Días 21 Sep 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Sep 010/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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