Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 septiembre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 264 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Sep 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1574 (S22W70) produced a C1/Sf flare at 20/1139Z. Over the period, the region grew from a simple unipolar spot to a 4 spot bipolar group. All other spotted regions indicated little change. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (21 - 23 September).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z. The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10 nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active intervals for days one and two (21 - 22 September) as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) remains geoeffective. By day three (23 September), mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected as CH HSS effects wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Sep a 23 Sep
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 Sep 117
  Previsto   21 Sep-23 Sep  115/115/120
  Media de 90 Días        20 Sep 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 Sep  013/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/012-009/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Sep a 23 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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