Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 263 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 1576
(S22E62) produced a few C-class flares, the largest a C2/Sf at
19/1512Z. Both Region 1576 and 1575 (N10E62) continue to rotate
onto the disk and appear to have beta magnetic characteristics. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (20 - 22 September).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
satellite measurements of the solar wind observed steady velocities
at about 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +8 to -10 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (20
September). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active intervals is expected for days two and three (21 - 22
September) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Sep 110 Previsto 20 Sep-22 Sep 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 19 Sep 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 009/010-008/012-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 30% | 30% |
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