Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 259 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Low-level B-class x-ray
flares occurred during the period. Region 1566 (N23W76 - Hrx/alpha)
produced occasional B-class flares as it approached the west limb.
Occasional B-class flares also occurred from a yet-to-be-numbered
small spot group that rotated into view late in the period. Region
1569 (S12W00 - Eao/beta-gamma) showed minor spot growth in its
trailer portion and retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
New Region 1572 (N15W70 - Axx/alpha) was numbered. There was no
Earth-directed CME activity observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (16 - 18 September) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled levels around midday on day 1 (16
September) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the
CME associated with the filament disappearance observed on 13
September. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 2 (17 September) as CME effects subside. A
further decrease to quiet levels is expected on day 3 (18
September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Sep 098 Previsto 16 Sep-18 Sep 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 15 Sep 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 011/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 10% | 05% |
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