Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 258 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 1569 (S12E14) produced occasional B-class flares. It showed a slight decrease in intermediate spots, but retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No significant changes were observed in the remaining spotted regions. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (15 - 17 September) with a chance for a
C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15
September) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. A further
increase to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (16 September)
with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the CME
associated with the filament disappearance on 13 September. Field
activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (17 September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Sep 101 Previsto 15 Sep-17 Sep 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 14 Sep 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 009/010-011/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 30% | 10% |
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