Viendo archivo del domingo, 9 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 253 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S13W53 -
Eai/beta-gamma) produced two low-level C-class flares. It showed
little change during the period and retained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Newly-numbered Region 1568 (S12W29 - Dso/beta-gamma)
emerged early in the period and rapidly developed into a D-type
group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. It produced a single
low-level C-class flare. There was no Earth-directed CME activity
during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (10 - 12 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 3 (10 - 12 September)
with a chance for unsettled levels and a slight chance for active
levels on day 3 due to the onset of a coronal hole high-speed
stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Sep a 12 Sep
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Sep 123 Previsto 10 Sep-12 Sep 120/115/110 Media de 90 Días 09 Sep 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Sep a 12 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 20% |
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