Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 agosto 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 230 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Aug 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare was observed on the northeast limb at 17/1319Z. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was later observed in LASCO C3 imagery emerging from the northeast limb around 17/1354Z. An M1 flare followed at 17/1720Z from the same vicinity. The M1 flare was accompanied by a Tenflare (140sfu). New region 1547 (N05E21) was numbered today and classified as a Cso type group with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1543 (N24W59) remained the largest group on the disk and was classified as a Cko type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels were observed during the 00-03Z synoptic period. The remainder of the day saw quiet to active conditions. The active period was associated with effects from a CME which occurred on 13 August.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20 August) with lingering effects from a CME and the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Aug a 20 Aug
Clase M10%15%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Aug 095
  Previsto   18 Aug-20 Aug  095/095/100
  Media de 90 Días        17 Aug 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Aug  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  011/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  009/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Aug a 20 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%20%20%
Tormenta Menor15%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%25%25%

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