Viendo archivo del sábado, 11 agosto 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 224 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Aug 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1540 (S25W50)
produced a long duration M1/2n flare at 11/1220Z. A faint CME was
first observed in LASCO C2 imagery emerging from the southwest at
11/1325Z. Analysis is underway to determine the potential
geoeffectiveness. Region 1542 (S31W33) produced a C2/1f flare at
11/1642Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(12-14 August).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field shifted southward to around -5nT
beginning at 11/08Z and remained there through the period. Solar
wind speed remained between 300-350 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for
isolated active periods, for the next three days (12-14 August).
The elevated activity is associated with the arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Aug 120 Previsto 12 Aug-14 Aug 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 11 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 010/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 15% |
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