Viendo archivo del lunes, 6 agosto 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 219 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Aug 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low to moderate. Newly numbered Region 1542 (S13E75) produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/0438Z, with associated Type II (estimated velocity of 552 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as several C-class flares. Two CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery with the majority of the ejecta off the northeast limb. These CMEs do not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is forecast to be at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with active periods at high latitudes due to an extended period of southward Bz. ACE solar wind data indicated fairly consistent solar wind velocities around 350 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (07 Aug), then increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Aug) due to a glancing blow from the 04 Aug CME. Day three (09 Aug) should see a return to mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods as the effects of the CME begin to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Aug a 09 Aug
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Aug 134
  Previsto   07 Aug-09 Aug  135/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        06 Aug 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Aug  009/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  006/005-007/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Aug a 09 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%15%15%
Tormenta Menor01%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor15%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%25%20%

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