Viendo archivo del lunes, 30 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 212 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1532 (S19E14) and
new Region 1536 (S21E26) were responsible for the highest flares
during the period: a C8/1n flare at 30/1403Z and an M1/Sn at
30/1548Z respectively. Analysis with magnetogram and white light
imagery determined that Region 1532 was actually two separate
regions. New Region 1536 now encompasses the two larger spots
trailing Region 1532. Another new spot group rotated onto the
northeast limb and was numbered Region 1535 (N18E64). No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
reporting period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares. Regions 1532 and 1536 are the
most likely Regions to produce M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with intervals of minor to
major storming observed at high latitudes during the periods ranging
from 30/0600 - 0900Z and from 30/1200 - 1800Z. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 350 to
450 km/s, while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field had prolonged southward intervals near -7 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (31 July). Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on day 2 (01 August). By approximately
mid-day on day 3 (02 August), quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected with isolated active periods possible due to effects from
the 28 July CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jul a 02 Aug
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Jul 136 Previsto 31 Jul-02 Aug 135/135/140 Media de 90 Días 30 Jul 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Jul 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 008/010-006/006-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jul a 02 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 30% |
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