Viendo archivo del viernes, 27 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 209 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity
between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f
x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a
Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was
reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial
speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was
measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient
will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533
(S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some
preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered)
rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region
1532.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The
field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with
possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should
recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30
July) as CH effects wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Jul 123 Previsto 28 Jul-30 Jul 125/130/135 Media de 90 Días 27 Jul 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jul 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 45% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 65% | 30% |
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