Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 julio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 203 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jul 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The four numbered sunspot regions remained stable and quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (22-24 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated speeds above nominal levels ranging from 400-520 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event observed at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/1715Z ended early in the period at 21/0310Z. Peak flux levels observed with this event were 136 pfu at 18/0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods for the next three days (22-24 July) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jul a 24 Jul
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Jul 090
  Previsto   22 Jul-24 Jul  090/095/100
  Media de 90 Días        21 Jul 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jul  010/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  009/009
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  008/010-011/015-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jul a 24 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor30%35%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%35%35%

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