Viendo archivo del viernes, 20 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 202 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. Region 1523 (S28W74) and Region 1525 (S20E09) are the largest
regions on the disk but both regions remained stable and quiet. New
Region 1526 (S17E63) was numbered earlier today and is currently a
simple beta group. A disappearing filament was observed in the
northwest quadrant of the Sun, however no CMEs were observed in
conjunction with the event.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class flares for the next three
days (21-23 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (21 July). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two (22 July), as a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. An increase to
quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is
expected on day three (23 July) as effects of the CH HSS continue.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jul a 23 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 40% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jul 092 Previsto 21 Jul-23 Jul 090/090/095 Media de 90 Días 20 Jul 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jul 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 006/005-008/010-011/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jul a 23 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 35% | 35% |
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