Viendo archivo del miércoles, 18 julio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 200 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jul 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar Activity was low. Region 1520 (S17W89), set to rotate off the west limb today, produced all of todays flare activity, consisting of two C3 class events. Region 1523 (S28W51) showed slight decay, while the remaining Regions 1524 (S16E37) and newly numbered 1525 (S22E36) were quiet and stable. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar Activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next 24 hours until 1520 rotates further around west limb. Days two and three are expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at generally quiet levels for the entire period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 17/1715Z continued throughout the period. The peak value observed was 136 PFU at 18/0600Z after which the flux levels were generally decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 19 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jul a 21 Jul
Clase M30%10%05%
Clase X10%05%01%
Protón80%10%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Jul 110
  Previsto   19 Jul-21 Jul  100/095/095
  Media de 90 Días        18 Jul 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jul  009/018
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  007/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jul a 21 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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