Viendo archivo de domingo, 15 julio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 197 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jul 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1520 (S17W48) remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk, however it has remained rather stable and quiet. Regions 1521 (S21W60) and 1519 (S17W68) have been the most active regions producing low level C-class events. Both regions have shown moderate growth in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days (16-18 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. These elevated levels can be attributed to continuing CME effects. Measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed variable IMF total field strength and occasional negative Bz early in the period. Around 0600Z, total IMF peaked around 28 nT, with the Bz component reaching a maximum deflection of -18 nT. These levels remained almost constant and elevated throughout the remainder of the summary period. Multiple major to severe storm periods at high latitudes with minor to major storm periods at mid latitudes were observed during the period, due to the 16 hours of sustained negative Bz coupled with elevated (500-600 km/s) solar wind speeds.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 July) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels is expected on days two and three (17-18 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jul a 18 Jul
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Jul 141
  Previsto   16 Jul-18 Jul  135/130/120
  Media de 90 Días        15 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jul  011/018
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  032/049
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  013/018-006/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jul a 18 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%05%05%
Tormenta Menor10%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor30%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%05%05%

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