Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1521 (S21W34) has been the most active region,
producing multiple low-level C-class events. Region 1520 (S16W23)
has decayed in area but remains the most magnetically complex region
on the disk, still classified as a beta-gamma-delta. The other four
numbered active sunspot regions have remained quiet and rather
stable. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 13/0224Z. After
analysis, the CME was determined to not be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (14-16 July), as
Regions 1520 and 1521 continue to evolve and rotate toward the west
limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels with a slight chance
for isolated periods at major storm levels on day one (14 July), due
the arrival of the 12 July CME. Unsettled to active levels with a
chance for minor storm periods are expected on day two (15 July), as
effects of the CME continue. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (16 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jul 147 Previsto 14 Jul-16 Jul 145/135/125 Media de 90 Días 13 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 017/034-014/018-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 20% | 05% |
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