Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 julio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 193 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jul 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1519 (S15W18), 1520 (S17E06) and 1521 (S22W07) all produced C-class flares during the period. The largest event was a C9/1n at 11/0831Z from Region 1521. Region 1520 indicated consolidation and rotation in its trailer spots while developing additional sheer. The region remained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. During the past 24 hours, Region 1521 elongated along its E/W axis and developed a gamma configuration in its trailer spots. The region is now classified as an E-type beta-gamma group. A 20 degree long filament erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk at about 11/0930Z. The eruption occurred along a channel centered near N22E22. Limited LASCO imagery hinted at a possible CME that lifted off the NNE limb likely associated with the filament eruption. Further analysis of this CME is ongoing.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three days (12 - 14 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude minor to major storm intervals from 11/0600 - 1200Z. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities remained steady at about 500 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 - 14 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jul a 14 Jul
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 Jul 162
  Previsto   12 Jul-14 Jul  160/160/155
  Media de 90 Días        11 Jul 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jul  015/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 11 Jul  009/009
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jul a 14 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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