Viendo archivo del martes, 10 julio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 192 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jul 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1520 (S16E19) produced three M-class events during the period, the largest an M2/1f flare at 10/0627Z. The region grew slightly in area and spot count and maintained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Other activity included a C4/1f flare at 10/0834Z from Region 1519 (S16W04) and a C8/Sf flare at 10/1345Z from Region 1521 (S22E05). Region 1521 indicated some elongation along its E/W axis while Region 1519 decayed from a B-type group to a single H spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the previous 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three days (11 - 13 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm intervals from 09/2100 - 2400Z. This activity was most likely a result of residual CME effects from recent flare activity from old Regions 1513 (N17, L=220) and 1515 (S17, L=206). ACE solar data indicated wind velocities steadily increased through the period from 400 km/s to near 500 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT while interplanetary field strength ranged between 6 to 12 nT. At about 09/2100Z, the phi angle switched from a negative (toward) orientation to a positive (away) orientation. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (11 - 13 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jul a 13 Jul
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 Jul 173
  Previsto   11 Jul-13 Jul  170/165/165
  Media de 90 Días        10 Jul 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jul  029/038
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 10 Jul  012/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jul a 13 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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