Viendo archivo del domingo, 8 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 190 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W76) produced
an M6/1n at 08/1632Z along with a 640 sfu Tenflare, Type II (est.
speed 2271 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME became
visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/1648Z. The majority of the ejecta
appears to be directed southwest but further analysis will be
conducted as imagery becomes available. Region 1520 (S15E42)
continued to grow to 1070 millionths and is considered an Fhc-type
group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The region produced
an M1/Sf at 08/0953Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(09-11 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The proton event that began at 07/0400Z and peaked at 07/0745
(25 pfu), ended at 07/2110Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
enhanced but below threshold at the time of this report.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (09 July). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two (10 July), with a chance for
isolated active periods due to possible weak effects from the CME
observed on 06 July. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected
for day three (11 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jul a 11 Jul
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jul 178 Previsto 09 Jul-11 Jul 165/155/150 Media de 90 Días 08 Jul 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jul 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 012/010-013/015-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jul a 11 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 10% |
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