Viendo archivo del sábado, 7 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 189 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W63) produced
an X1 at 06/2308Z along with several M-class flares. An associated
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2324Z, along with a 520
sfu Tenflare, Type II (est. speed 1771 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps. The bulk of the material appears to be directed southwest
and is not expected to cause significant activity. New Region 1520
(S15E54) was numbered today and produced an M1 event at 07/0828Z.
The region is considered an Fhc-type group with a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class activity for the next three days
(08-10 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
with an isolated minor storm period from 06/2100-2400Z due to an
extended period of southward Bz. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterdays X-class event began at 07/0400Z and
peaked at 25 pfu at 07/0745Z. The event was still in progress at the
time of this report.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (08 July) due to
effects from the 04 July CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on day two (09 July) as effects subside. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on
day three (10 July) due to possible weak effects from the CME
associated with yesterdays X-class event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Jul a 10 Jul
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Jul 158 Previsto 08 Jul-10 Jul 160/155/145 Media de 90 Días 07 Jul 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 014/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Jul 009/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 017/025-012/012-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Jul a 10 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 25% | 25% |
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