Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 187 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W36) produced
an M6/1b at 05/1144Z along with several low-level M-class flares.
The region continued to grow slightly in areal coverage and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W52) grew as well but did not produce any further M-class
activity since yesterdays report.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(06-08 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS). Solar wind speed decreased throughout the period to
approximately 475 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (06-07 July) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions are
likely on day three (08 July), with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods, due to effects from the CME associated with the M1/2n
flare observed at 04/1639Z from Region 1513.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jul a 08 Jul
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Jul 165 Previsto 06 Jul-08 Jul 165/165/160 Media de 90 Días 05 Jul 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jul 011/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 009/008-007/012-017/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jul a 08 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 30% | 55% |
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