Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 julio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 01 2240 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 183 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jul 2012 ::::::::::Corrected Copy::::::::::

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N16E03) produced an M2/Sb at 01/1918Z. The region did not show any significant growth or decay during the period. Region 1515 (S17E17) continued to grow in areal coverage and is now 850 millionths. New Region 1517 (N19E26) was numbered overnight.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with isolated M-class flares likely for the next three days (02-04 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes along with an isolated major storm period from 01/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speeds were steady at approximately 650 km/s with a total field strength of 5 nT throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active storm periods on days one and two (02-03 July) due to continued CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (04 July) as effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jul a 04 Jul
Clase M55%55%55%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       01 Jul 133
  Previsto   02 Jul-04 Jul  135/140/140
  Media de 90 Días        01 Jul 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jun  021/027
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 01 Jul  016/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  013/018-013/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jul a 04 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%10%
Tormenta Menor10%10%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor30%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%35%15%

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