Viendo archivo del jueves, 28 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 180 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1513 (N17E45) produced an impulsive M2/1b flare at 28/1612Z along
with occasional B- and C-class flares including a long-duration
C2/Sf at 28/1948Z. Region 1513 showed a minor increase in spot count
and an increase in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 1512
(S15W02) maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but
showed little change during the period. This region produced
occasional B- and C-class flares during the period. No new regions
were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred
during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (29 June - 01 July) with a chance for another
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 June) with
a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels during days 2 - 3 (30 June - 01 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Jun a 01 Jul
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Jun 120 Previsto 29 Jun-01 Jul 115/115/120 Media de 90 Días 28 Jun 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 009/010-015/018-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Jun a 01 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 35% |
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