Viendo archivo del miércoles, 27 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 179 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1512 (S15E11) and 1513
(S15E58) each produced low-level C-class flares as well as
occasional optical subflares. Region 1512 showed spot and penumbral
growth in its intermediate portion along with an increase in
magnetic complexity and was classified as a Dki/beta-gamma. Region
1513 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cso/beta. New Regions 1514 (S16E55) and 1515
(S16E70) were numbered and were classified as a Bxo/beta and
Cso/beta, respectively. Region 1515 produced occasional optical
subflares during the latter half of the period. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (28 - 30 June) with a chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with unsettled to active periods
detected at high latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (28 June). Field activity is expected
to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (29 June) with a
chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). A further increase to unsettled to active levels is
expected on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due
to CH HSS effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jun a 30 Jun
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Jun 106 Previsto 28 Jun-30 Jun 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 27 Jun 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jun 007/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 006/007-009/010-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jun a 30 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 40% |
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