Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S17W39) produced a
few C-class flares during the last part of the period. The largest
flare was a C3/Sf at 17/1740Z. Region 1504 fluctuated in area,
ending the period at about 820 millionths.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity ranged from active to major storm levels due to
CME effects. A magnetopause crossing was observed by the GOES 15
satellite from around 16/2200Z to 16/2300Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began at 16/1955Z reached a maximum flux of 14 pfu
at 16/2020Z and ended at 16/2255Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to decrease to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day 1 (18 June) and continue to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 2 (19 June) as CME effects subside. On day 3
(20 June), a chance for unsettled activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jun a 20 Jun
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jun 124 Previsto 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/125/125 Media de 90 Días 17 Jun 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jun 019/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jun 026/038 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 014/022-008/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jun a 20 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 30% | 20% |
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