Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 junio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 163 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jun 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1507 (S26E17) was the most active region of the period, producing several C-flares. The largest of these was a C1/Sf at 1903Z. Region 1504 (S17E40) is the largest group on the disk and managed to produce a C-class flare. Regions 1504 and 1507 are both growing steadily. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely with Regions 1504 and 1507 the most probable source.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet to unsettled. Minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes during 10/0600Z to 10/0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (12 June). An increase in activity is expected mid-day due to a glancing blow from a CME observed on 08 June. Activity is expected to return to quiet partway through day 2 (13 June) as the effects of the CME subside. Activity is expected to remain quiet on day 3 (14 June).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jun a 14 Jun
Clase M55%55%55%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 Jun 134
  Previsto   12 Jun-14 Jun  135/135/130
  Media de 90 Días        11 Jun 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jun  006/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  007/008-006/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jun a 14 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%25%05%
Tormenta Menor01%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%15%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

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